Defiance: 2nd Russo-Ukrainian War 2022-?

Background

On November 9, 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall was a pivotal event in world history which marked the destruction of the Iron Curtain. Within two years, the USSR would collapse and 15 republics, including Ukraine, would gain independence from the disintegrating Soviet [Russian] empire.

In December 1994, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Russian Federation guaranteed Ukrainian sovereignty in perpetuity with the Budapest Memorandum in exchange for Ukraine relinquishing its inherited nuclear arms from the dissolved USSR.

On April 24, 2005, in his annual state of the nation address on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the collapse of the Soviet empire “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century."

On February 22, 2014, the [Ukraine] Rada voted 328–0 to remove Yanukovych, [Putin friendly leader of Ukraine], from his post and to schedule an early presidential election for 25 May [capping the Maidan revolution].

On February 27, 2014, unmarked Russian forces with nationalist paramilitaries took over the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, seizing the building of the Supreme Council of Crimea and the building of the Council of Ministers in Simferopol. Russian flags were raised over these buildings. Whilst the "little green men" were occupying the Crimean parliament building, the parliament held an emergency session. It voted to terminate the Crimean government.

On March 1, 2014, attempts to seize the Donetsk regional state administration (RSA) building began after Russian-led protests erupted in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, in the wake of the Maidan Revolution.

On July 7, 2021, Putin published an essay titled “On the historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” In one particularly ominous passage, Putin openly questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine’s borders and argued that much of modern-day Ukraine occupies historically Russian lands, before stating, “Russia was robbed.”

On January 19, 2022, President Joe Biden said he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine and warned President Vladimir Putin that his country would pay a “dear price” in lives lost.

36 days later, Russia invaded Ukraine.

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014 with the overthrow of a Putin-allied leader opposing Ukraine’s European integration. The invasion by a totalitarian state was the largest attack on a European republic since World War II. Russian special forces and paratroopers conducted an air assault of Hostomel airport (just outside of Kyiv) along with a number of operational movements in the northeast, north central, and southern portions of Ukraine. Russia anticipated a short, victorious campaign. Less than six weeks later, Russia was routed by spirited Ukrainian defense from the Kyiv/Chernihiv theater.

Simulation

Defiance: 2nd Russo-Ukrainian War 2022-? Volume 1: Miracle on the Dnipro 2022 (“Defiance”) covers the initial 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine with the Kyiv and Chernihiv campaigns from February 24, 2022 to roughly April 1, 2022. Defiance builds upon Victory Games’ (Mark Herman’s) Flashpoint Golan (1991), adds a strategic political component, and updates the system for modern multi-domain warfare/the expanded revolution in military affairs (eRMA).

We believe that operational combat has again evolved—more dependent upon troop quality and supporting assets versus simple relative odds of attacker and defender force ratio (the good ole 3-1 we were raised on). Additionally, we believe that the initial Russian invasion and toppling of the Ukrainian republic was a 50/50 proposition. Russia failed. Why? Could the probability of success have been higher or lower? What could have driven that? Defiance invites players to explore the answers to those questions. We hope to cover other operational campaigns in this conflict with future volumes of Defiance.

At its core, Defiance is a game where players pull chits, activate a formation, and conduct movement & combat while hopefully avoiding enemy detection & response. HQs figure prominently in the game with support, electronic, and combat enhancement capabilities.

A game turn has three phases: Strategic, Operational, and Logistics.

During the Strategic Phase, players draw one of three random SitRep cards that move four political tracks (Zelenskyy, NATO, Lukashenko, and Putin Tracks) and provide bonuses/penalties for players that accomplish (or fail to accomplish) specific tasks. Logistics points are generated and utilized to purchase HQ chits (which activate formations), logistics supply, and replacement points and improve readiness/muster troops. A Cup of Chaos is constructed which includes purchased HQ chits, a Berg random events chit, bonus chits, and chits that cause the turn to end. Supply is determined (and checked upon a unit activating). Supply states include offensive, full, partial, and out of supply. Russians have a significant challenge, given their dependency upon railroads. Finally, turn strike assets (aircraft, helicopters, drones, and long range strike weapons) are generated.

During the Operational Phase, players activate HQs and units from that formation to conduct movement and combat (either meeting engagement or set piece battles) during two activation segments (movement and exploitation). Each HQ may draw upon capabilities (support assets) that may be employed to assist friendly operations or thwart enemy efforts. Combat considers primarily troop quality and die roll modifiers (drm’s) for terrain, supply, and combat support (air and artillery). A Troop Quality check is made. If the result is higher than a unit’s TQ (troop quality), that unit suffers a reduction in morale (normal, disorganized, broken, cadre). Depending upon which side or sides suffer morale reductions, battle outcome is determined: Standoff, Repulse, Retreat, Stalemate.

During the Logistics Phase, players conduct reorganization (units recover a morale level if they reorganized the entire turn), spend replacement markers (that were purchased during the Strategic Phase) to recover morale levels/replenish ammunition, and conduct a few other odds and ends.

Victory is determined by control of locations.

Scenarios

• The game includes multiple two-player scenarios, including several shorter scenarios plus a campaign game.
• A bot for Russia allows solitaire play of the Ukrainian side in each scenario.
• Most scenarios have a standard historical setup, plus variable setups that provide an advantage to either Russia or Ukraine.

Components:

• Two 22” x 32” paper maps
• One 5/8” Countersheet (large formations)
• Three 1/2” Countersheets (info and small formations)
• Two 33” x 8.5” Fold Out Player Aid Cards (thicker stock)
• Four 8.5” x 11” Player Aid Cards (thicker stock)
• One deck of 55 SitRep cards
• Two 10-sided dice
• One Series Rules Booklet
• One Scenario Play Booklet
• One Sticker sheet for HQs
• 50 Wood bits: 30 blocks, 10 Red sticks (denote front (lines), 10 stars (activated HQs)