A Fading Star: Insurgency and Piracy in Somalia

The Commissioner for Peace and Security of the African Union, whose mission had been on the ground in Somalia for the past two years, said the twin problems of piracy and terrorism were a symptom of a larger problem: lawlessness in South Central Somalia, which must be addressed. He cautioned that, if Somalia were allowed to sink [...] world security would be severely undermined.

- Press release for UN Resolution 1851, December 2008

A Fading Star: Insurgency and Piracy in Somalia is Volume XV of the COIN Series originally designed by Volko Ruhnke. The year is 2007. We reach the climax of several decades of civil war that have ravaged Somalia since the fall of dictator Siad Barre in 1991. An African Union coalition, assisted by the Ethiopian army, enters Mogadishu to support a nascent but corrupt Transitional Federal Government. They face a relentless and violent insurgency waged by Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, an Islamic group seeking both to expel the "invaders" and to transcend the traditional clan-based government structure of Somalia. In the middle of this power vacuum, minor clans and warlords organize themselves to administrate otherwise ungoverned regions, while others engage in large-scale piracy operations, painting their acts as a fight against foreign trawlers pillaging Somali fishing resources.

Highlights:

• An updated take on contemporary aspects of insurgency and peacebuilding. The Al-Shabaab insurgent enjoys intelligence supremacy that allows them to conduct deadly out-of-turn ambushes, while facing a slightly less pronounced asymmetrical disadvantage than insurgent factions in previous volumes (due to the comparative weakness of the Transitional Federal Government). On the other hand, the African Union Mission's logistical, kinetic, and peacebuilding capacities will evolve as contributing countries join or leave the coalition throughout the game.
• Intense urban warfare is depicted in more detail through the struggle for control of the capital city Mogadishu. Controlling a majority of districts will provide the ruling faction with further legitimacy and enhanced capabilities. However, limited operational effectiveness, mobility restrictions, and the looming threat from a major Al-Shabaab offensive will greatly slow the COIN factions' progress toward stabilizing the city.
• A new ‘Clan Struggle’ interphase draws out some of the conflict's unique uncertainties. All sides bid to forge new alliances with local clans, bringing new blood to the battlefield, while the African Union must deal with the consequences of delayed reinforcements or unilateral withdrawals by member countries, and the Pirate warlords collect lucrative tolls from roads and ports that they control. 
• A unique piracy subsystem, inspired by the Traveler deck featured in Fred Serval's A Gest of Robin Hood, debunks the Somali pirate mythos and explores how piracy stakeholders' interests actually intersected with other local actors during the golden age of Indian Ocean hostage-taking.

 Faction descriptions:

• Al-Shabaab wages a deadly Islamist insurgency against the African Union ‘occupiers’ and their dependent Transitional Federal Government allies. A clear edge in media warfare provides them with significant recruiting capacities that will help them build a Somali caliphate transcending the customary clan system.
• Ugandan and Burundian troops serving in the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) aim to enforce peace, build support for the Transitional Federal Government, and train the weak federal army. Neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya may also enter the scene to stabilize their respective borders while interfering in Somali politics.
• An abysmally weak Transitional Federal Government seeks to survive in a besieged Mogadishu while reaching out into the rest of the country to advance the federalization process. Unprecedented embezzlement capacities and partnerships with like-minded clans may offer the consecutive administrations an opportunity to survive the conflict unharmed and more prosperous than ever, and a new kind of militia unit emphasizes the opportunistic nature of the Somali clans' agendas.
• Pirates, minor clans, and unaligned warlords pursue their enrichment projects by raiding the high seas or setting up roadblocks across unruly parts of the country. They'll settle for a "customary" Somalia, neither rooted in sharia law nor totally anchored to the liberal world order.

Players can select from three different scenarios:

1. A Fading Star is the main four-campaign scenario. Through an eight-year-long story starting in 2007, when the federal government resettled in a war-prone Mogadishu, you'll witness the slow decline of piracy and the struggle for an insurgent-free South-Central Somalia. The scenario historically ends with Al-Shabaab’s “Emir” Ahmed Abdi Godane's death in a US drone strike and the subsequent AMISOM sweepings of major Al-Shabaab strongholds.  

2. The Lion of Mogadishu scenario is a three campaign mid-length scenario, starting in 2009. As Ethiopian troops completely withdraw from the country, a precarious situation ensues, leaving the underequipped AMISOM contingent responsible for the capital's fate. In the countryside, the Somali clans consider their impact on the war as the federal government’s days might be numbered. 

3. Fighting for Peace is the shortest scenario, with the factions competing through two campaigns covering the four years following Al-Shabaab’s 2011 retreat from the capital. The pirates face an existential crisis as they must deal with increased efforts by the seafaring industry and global community to deter their business. At the same time, more clan elders begin to join the country's federalization process.

Historical background:
The year is 2001. Nearly a decade has passed since the dramatic failure of Operation Gothic Serpent in 1993, when the US aimed to capture Somali warlord Mohamed Farrah Aidid. Yet while the mainstream international audience rediscovers a dramatized retelling of those events through Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down, other parts of the international community remain at the bedside of Somalia. On the one hand, a round of political conferences vetted by African and Middle Eastern countries fails to kickstart a credible and wholly recognized Somali government. On the other, the American intelligence services gather together a poorly labeled Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism: a loose coalition of warlord militias that were to be on the lookout for elements of Al-Qaida residing in, or transiting through, a post-2001 Somalia. This joint venture would soon enough crumble in the face of the rising power of the Islamic Courts.

Fifteen years of warlordism and permanent crisis left the inhabitants of the capital Mogadishu resentful towards the new masters of the city. Moreover, everyday business was sluggish due to widespread corruption and the large number of militia roadblocks gridding the town. A coalition of entrepreneurs, clerics, militants, and clan elders took the matter into their own hands by reestablishing an Islamic-based justice system. They created shariah-inspired magistratures that would solve their respective neighborhoods' daily disputes. These Islamic Courts quickly became credible enough actors to unite, gather their own militias, and challenge the rule of the CIA-backed warlords, who were never truly unified. Although one may argue that the Islamic Court Unions (ICU) was also an uneasy alliance of clan leaders, the cementing of their power allowed the Courts to topple their rivals one after another in South-Central Somalia.

However, this bloody new chapter in the Somali Civil War did not only draw the sole attention of the United States. The ICU gathered significant material and financial support from the rogue Eritrean state, willing to counter their Ethiopian archrival's plans to push for a federal Somalia. More concerning was the presence within their ranks of battle-hardened Islamic militants with recent experience in Afghanistan. Although a minority in the ICU, these men were primarily the byproducts of a historical strand of Salafist jihadism that had crossed the decades since the fall of Siad Barre. One notable channel was Al-Ittihad al-Islami, an Al-Qaeda-backed group, a few members of which claimed some of the most prestigious positions within the victorious Islamic Courts Union. Among them was Ahmed Abdi Godane, who would eventually claim the title of "Emir" of Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen and lead the insurgency that later challenged the eventually internationally recognized Somali transitional federal government (TFG).

A few months after the Islamic Courts claimed victory over the warlords, Ethiopia unilaterally entered Somalia to defeat the ICU, accompanied by a few TFG-aligned militias. Cold-footed by decades of Somali irredentism and cross borders clashes, Addis Ababa was willing to pull its whole weight to avoid the rise of a transnational and non-aligned power in Mogadishu. Despite a successful operation and the flight of ICU leaders to Eritrea by the end of 2006, the invasion would merely bolster the ranks of the most hardened Islamist militias, creating a quagmire from which the Ethiopians would not withdraw until 2009.

The most remote coastal areas of Somalia also had their share of troubles. Years of security vacuum saw the Somalis unable to protect their precious fishing resources from foreign trawlers' raids. Worse, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami devastated the fragile fishery industry infrastructure across the whole area, and reports were made of toxic residue resurfacing on the coast after the apocalyptic wave withdrew. In the same year, Ogaden war veteran and Puntland President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed was elected as the new head of state of the TFG. By moving from Puntland to the interim seat of state in Baidoa, Ahmed would leave behind many civil servants without wages. In addition to a preexisting shady fishing licensing scheme in the area, these factors combined and exploded into a surge of piracy activity. Although not entirely new, the phenomenon would grow across the whole region and profoundly impact the world maritime industry for years to come.

The stage is now set for A Fading Star, as decades of intermittent civil war have laid the foundations for a violent contest between the weak and corrupt Transitional Federal Government, the relatively powerful and flexible Al-Shabaab movement, foreign intervention in the form of the African Union Mission, and an opportunistic coalition of pirates and regional warlords.

Components:

• One 22" x 34" mounted game board 
• A deck of event cards
• A deck of piracy cards
• A deck of tarot-sized Jacquard non-player cards
• 148 wooden pieces
• One full color counter sheet
• Four player aid foldouts 
• Two sequence of play aids
• One non-player aid foldout and one non-player aid sheet
• A rulebook 
• A non-player rulebook 
• A background playbook 
• Four six-sided dice
• A 3" box

Players: 1-4 (full solitaire system)
Timescale: Approximately two months per turn and two years per campaign

Game Designer: Yann de Villeneuve
Game Developer: Joe Dewhurst
Series Designer: Volko Ruhnke
Series Developer: Jason Carr